Between November 2002 and March 2003, the humanitarian aid regime prepared for
an estimated one million ‘refugees’ to flee Iraq in the aftermath of the Anglo-American
invasion – Operation Iraqi Freedom – to topple the regime of Saddam Hussein. Six
months after the fall of the Iraqi regime, however, few Iraqis had fled their country. The
international aid regime had miscalculated and poorly understood the Iraqi peoples’
response. In 2004, the camps were dismantled, and pre-positioned food and other items
were removed. Three years later the world was caught off-guard as hundreds of thousands
of Iraqis fled their homes in 2006 and 2007, seeking to escape a collapse in security and
deadly sectarian violence. Although estimates vary widely, about two million Iraqis fled
their homes but did not cross national borders and between one and two million Iraqis
travelled to Jordan and Syria, settling largely in the cities of Damascus, Aleppo and
Amman. Others moved to Cairo and Istanbul, and many travelled much further. The
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and other NGOs raced to set
up reception centres and to provide emergency aid and measures for temporary protection.

Today we find that many Iraqi refugees maintain their distance from the UNHCR, for
reasons including loss of faith in the willingness of politicians and officials to assist them,
and from fear of repatriation and its consequences. This report considers some of the
key issues confronting them and those who remain ‘internally’ displaced (within Iraq’s
national borders). It suggests that the displacement crisis has reached a critical stage – one
in which, as international interest in Iraq declines, refugees will be expected to return
and to reintegrate into a society profoundly marked by war and lack of security, civil
conflict and economic uncertainty. The report suggests that mass return is unlikely; that
very large communities of Iraqis will continue to live under difficult circumstances in a
number of Middle Eastern countries; and that continuing displacement within and from
Iraq may stimulate further movement of long-distance migrants. It considers briefly the
implications for states, refugee agencies and NGOs, recommending careful consideration
of policy options in order to avoid errors of judgement like those that contributed to the
migration crisis of 2006–2007.

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